First, demographic change will greatly expand federal outlays unless politicians decide to degrade the level of protection traditionally provided to the elderly. Between Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and other smaller programs, about 32 percent of the U.S. federal budget, or about 7.7 percent of gross domestic product, is devoted to supporting those over 65. The ratio of this age group to those of working age will rise from 1:4.6 to 1:2.7 over the next generation, implying an increase in federal spending of 5.6 percentage points of GDP, if no other adjustments are made. True, as Americans health and life expectancy improve, it may be appropriate to revise upward the assumed retirement age. However, it will be unlikely to counteract the expected 34 percent increase over the next generation in the share of the population that will be within 15 years of estimated life expectancy.
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First, there is a proper division of labor between those who develop theories and those who meet day to day challenges.? It is progress, not regress, that today we have physicists who conceive theories and do experiments and civil engineers who build bridges.? This work was done by the same people centuries ago.? In the same way, it represents progress through the division of labor that it is no longer true that academics are the people best informed about the evolution of next quarter s GDP?as was the case even in the 1960s.? While there are exceptions, much of the progress in modern medicine comes from scientific research done by people who do not on a regular basis see patients.? Watson and Crick would have been slowed down, not helped, if they had spent time with MD s.
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2003 December - Former president Arnoldo Aleman jailed for 20 years for corruption. A year later he is transferred to house arrest. He is freed in 2009 amid controversy.
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